Investment Views / May 31th (Mon)

My views are recalibrated on a weekly basis.

 

Overall currently, I calibrate my views based on the following rationales

• Economic Theory
• Quantitative Signals based on economic theories / investment hypotheses / shifts in regime / tail hedging
• Pure Technicals

< Cross Asset Views >

- bullish on equities but with lower confidence since late April 2021 (will decrease exposure)

- bullish on gold, oil (will increase exposure to precious metals)

- less bearish on bonds (prefer investment grade, high yield over treasuries)

 

< Global Equities >

- europe, uk, us, india, mexico exhibiting good sustatinable momentum (europe with higher confidence)

- overall bullish on world equities

- russell over nasdaq / em over japan / reits still attractive

 

< S&P500 Sector Views >

- energy, utilities, tech are the top picks.

- prefer value but keep exposure to tech

 

< SPX / VIX bets >

- generally bullish but turbulence still expected (go long but no leverage preferred)

- Prefer long mid term vix over shorting them but with low confidence (prefer no position)

 

< KOSPI >

- prefer long over short. macro environment still bullish.

 

< Crypto >

- Bullish over 3 year horizon

 

* Overall bullish don't see extreme headwinds ahead (although minor corrections wouldn't be a surprise) Keep most assets allocated to equities but diversify across regions/sectors/factors, allocate some to gold, industrial metals, reits.